International Energy Agency electric car report released, China’s hegemony

At the end of April, the International Energy (IEA) released the “Global EV Outlook 2021” report, reviewed the 2020 World Electric Automobile market, predicted to 2030 trends.

In this annual release, the most related words related to China is “dominate, leaders (Lead), maximum, maximum”.

such as:

China is the country with the largest number of electric vehicles in electric vehicles;

China has the most electric car models;

China dominates the global electric bus and electric weight card market;

China is the largest electric light commercial vehicle market;

China accounts for more than 70% of the power battery capacity of the world;

China leads the fast-moving infrastructure of global electric vehicles …

After the next China, it is Europe.

At present, although Europe’s electric car ownership and China have a big gap, in 2020, Europe’s first exceeded China for the first time, and became the world’s largest electric vehicle consumption area.

IEA report predicts that by 2030, the number of electric vehicles on the global road is expected to reach 145 million. China and Europe will continue to be the most important market for global electric vehicles.

1

Maintain China’s largest

2020 Europe

According to IEA statistics, as of the end of 2020, the global electric vehicle has exceeded 10 million. Among them, 4.5 million in China, 3.2 million in Europe, 1.7 million in the United States, the remaining electric cars spread in other countries and regions.

2010 – 2020 Global Electric Vehicle Guarantee

Source: IEA

Over the years, China has always been the world’s largest electric vehicle market, until 2020, is the first time in Europe.

In that year, there were 1.4 million electric vehicles in Europe registered with a new electric vehicle, accounting for nearly half of the global electric vehicle. Also, the usual cost of electric vehicles in Europe has reached 10%, far from other countries and regions.

2015 – 2020 Global Electric Vehicle Registration and City Size

Source: IEA, left unit: thousand, light blue is pure electric dark blue is insertion; green point is electric car market share

In addition to passenger cars, electric business vehicles have developed rapidly in recent years. As of the end of 2020, the global electric bus and truck had a total of 600,000 and 31,000.

With the expansion of electric vehicle market, consumers and governments in this area also rose high.

2015 – 2020 consumers and government electric car expenses

Source: IEA, left unit: billion, light blue to consumers, dark blue for government expenditure, green point for government expenditure proportion

2020, global consumers spent $ 120 billion for purchasing electric cars, a year-on-year increase of 50%.

At that year, governments have spend $ 14 billion in electric vehicle sector by caring subsidies and tax reduction offers, an increase of 25% year-on-year. All countries with increased government expenditures in Europe, and China is reduced by subsidiaries, and government spending is reduced.

According to the type of model, in 2020, the world’s electric car models have approximately 370 models, an increase of 40% year-on-year. Among them, China has the most electric vehicle models, twice the European models, three times the United States.

Distribution of electric vehicles at different levels of major countries and regions in 2020

Source: IEA, longitudinal coordination is electric car number, light blue is pure electric, dark blue is inserted

It can be seen that the fastest growing model in 2020 is SUV, more than 55% of electric vehicles are SUV and pickup.

2

Electric light commercial car: China’s most

At present, the global electric light commercial vehicle has about 4.35,000, China is still its largest market, and Europe is following later.

2015 – 2020 Global Electric Light Business Car Registration Quantity

Source: IEA, light blue is pure electric, dark blue is inserted

However, from 2019, China’s electric light commercial vehicle registration has been reduced for two consecutive years, and Europe’s registration continues to rise. In 2020, there were 37,000 electric light commercial vehicles in Europe, an increase of 40% year-on-year, only 5% less than China.

In addition to the China and European markets, 2020, the world’s remaining newly registered 11,000 electric light commercial vehicles, most in South Korea, other countries, the number of models such as other countries is very limited.

3

Electric bus and truck: China is absolutely leading

With the end of 2020, the global electric bus and trucks were 600,000 and 31,000, and most vehicles were in China.

2015 – 2020 Global Electric Bus and Truck Registration

Source: IEA

Take 2020 as an example, China has a total of 78,000 electric bus registration, an increase of 9% year-on-year, and the market share is 27%. The electric bus registration in Europe and the United States is only 2,100 and 580, respectively.

Electric truck market, 2020, China’s new number of new registrations is 6,700, an increase of 10% year-on-year. The sales of electric trucks in Europe and the United States have only 450 and 240.

4

Power Battery: 70% Production in China for 2020, global power battery capacity is about 160GWh, an increase of 33% year-on-year. Among them, over 70% of the capacity comes from China.

At the same time, China is also the world’s largest power battery consumption. 2020 power battery demand is about 80GWH, and the demand for power battery in Europe is second only to China, but its year-on-year increase reached 110%, higher than China. US 2020 power battery demand is only 19GWH.

2015 – 2020 Global Power Battery Demand

Source: IEA

At present, European self-produced power batteries cannot meet market demand, with an annual production capacity only 35GWH. However, according to the plan, by 2025, Europe’s power battery production can reach 400GWH.

In addition, IEA reports pointed out that it depends on scale effects, 2020, the price of power battery packs is reduced to $ 137 / kWh, which is 13% over 2019.

5

Charging pile: quickly charge China leading

China’s leading world is not only electric car itself, but also charging infrastructure.

2015 – 2020 global fast recharge quantity

Source: IEA

IEA reported that in 2020, the number of public charging piles in the global charging pile reached 1.3 million, an increase of 45% year-on-year, of which 30% was quickly charged. If there is no new crown epidemic, the number of charging piles should have a faster growth.

In terms of slow charging, in 2020, China has built 500,000 fast-filled piles, which increased by 65% ​​year-on-year. It is 250,000 new recovery piles in Europe that year, an increase of 33% year-on-year. In 2020, the new number of slow charging piles in the United States was only 82,000, an increase of 28% year-on-year.

In the fast-charged pile, in 2020, China’s new fast-charged piles were 310,000, an increase of 44% year-on-year. There is 38,000 fast charge piles in Europe, a year-on-year increase of 55%. The US fast-filled pillar has built 170,000, 60% of them are Tesla’s super charging piles.

6

prediction:

2030, 145 million or 23 million?

According to IEA’s forecast, from 2020, the global electric motor market will continue to grow rapidly.

In both cases, 2020 – 2030 Global Electric Vehicle Insurance Prediction

Source: IEA

IEA’s report is divided into two cases. One situation is based on the prediction of electric vehicle development in existing governments; the other is based on existing planning, making more stringent reduction reduction and carbon measures.

In the first case, IEA predicts that in 2030, the number of electric vehicles on the global road will reach 145 million, with an annual average growth rate of 30%. In the second case, the number of electric vehicles on 2030 can reach 230 million, and the electric vehicle market share has reached 12%.

The IEA report pointed out that the expected goals of 2030, China and Europe are still the most important promotion market.

China has developed the goal of “Carbon Dioxide Emission to achieve peaks in 2030” and “strive for 2060 years ago”. According to the prediction of “Energy Saving and New Energy Automotive Technology Road Map 2.0”, in 2030, new energy vehicle sales accounted for about 40% of the total sales; 2035, new energy vehicles became mainstream, accounting for more than 50% sales.

In Europe, on April 21st, the EU agreed that a range of climate change goals, including net emissions from 2050 and committed these goals to be legally binding. The government side has accelerated actions such as car subsidies, charging infrastructure construction, corporate side, such as a new platform.

In the United States, March 31, US President Biden delivered a speech in Pittsburgh, saying that the US government plans to invest 174 billion US dollars, win the back of electric car market in China.

Although the global car market is hurt, the electric car market in 2020 is still going to rise against the trend. Under the Government and enterprises of the world’s major economies, the global electric motor market will continue to show a powerful vitality.

–End-

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